Economic Update

23 June 2010 - View from the Desk - Volatility is the New Normal 

It is clear that the world economies are caught in a major debt drag. Low interest rates and loose money supply setting suggest that the volatility will continue. Australia continues to be in an excellent position to grow, with our major miners the main beneficiaries.

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16 June 2010 - View from the Desk - A Note of Realism amidst Irrationality and Contradictions 

While the outlook is difficult, the world will continue to grow. The world will grow faster in developing countries than in the developed world. We think that China will grow at twice the rate of the rest of the world and that Australia, as a supplier of raw materials to China, will benefit.

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pdf view_from_desk_160610 

9 June 2010 - View from the Desk - Opportunities to Capitalise on Market Swings 

In the Australian equity market, we are seeing more compelling value appearing in quality companies. The sharp drop in the $A is enhancing the value of our major resource companies in the face of the Resource Super Profits Tax (RSPT). However, with the volatility in markets and the likelihood of continued mood shifts, we suggest that investors pick their targets carefully, take their time, remain liquid and use the market gyrations to their advantage. 

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pdf view_from_desk_090610

2 June 2010 - View from the Desk - Volatility is Here to Stay

Our aim should always be to acquire good quality companies, at deep discounts to value, for a long term hold. However, it is imperative that gains that occur through irrational market behaviour are banked. These gains are identifiable when prices clearly exceed the real value of a company's shares.

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pdf view_from_desk_020610

26 May 2010 - View from the Desk - Problems Abroad and at Home - but there are Solutions   

A number of problems are confronting equity markets at present, and these need to be factored into share prices and valuations. We have been predicting many of these problems over the past year. 

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pdf view_from_desk_260510 

19 May 2010 - View from the Desk - Super Tax or a Transfer of Equity? 

An offshore observer of Australia across the backyards of Europe and Asia would see a country deep in residential debt, funded by excessive offshore credit, fuelling excessive residential property prices and governed by a bureaucracy that seems intent on taxing production rather than speculation.

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pdf view_from_desk_190510

12 May 2010 - View from the Desk - Oh What a Week - is it Deja Vu? 

The volatility in the share market is likely to remain, with the possibility of downside shocks. Given the emerging similarities between the European sovereign debt situation and the GFC in 2008, we suggest that investors look to increase the margin of safety when purchasing shares to reflect the higher degree of uncertainty in investor markets.

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pdf view_from_desk_120510

5 May 2010 - View from the Desk - A New Paradigm in Investment Markets 

The challenges faced by Governments and investors alike are immense. However, there is an up side to every situation and the irrational behaviour of markets will provide the opportunity for disciplined investors to acquire attractive companies at a price well below their value.

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pdf view_from_desk_050510

21 April 2010 - View from the Desk - Meandering Markets set traps for the Unprepared 

Our message is simple: avoid listening to the nonesense and focus on those companies that are sufficient quality to be in your portfolio. Then wait for the market to do its bit. Right now the market isn't  really going anywhere and having a disciplined purchasing approach will enhance your investment returns.

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pdf view_from_desk_210410 

13 April 2010 - View from the Desk - Markets Full of Spin 

Be wary of the spin. Europe has address the Greek debt issue with a band aid from a strange collection of contributors.

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7 April 2010 - View from the Desk - Interest Rates on the Way Up  

Australian interest rates are moving higher and this presents investors with yield returns that are becoming attractive compared to potential equity returns. 

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pdf view_from_desk_060410 

30 March 2010 - View from the Desk - Are Speculative Forces Pushing Asset Prices to Unsustainable Levels? 

This week is a big week for world equity markest and the world economy. By the end of this week we will (hopefully) receive a statement from the US Government that the US economy recreated over a hundred thousand new jobs in March.

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pdf view_from_desk_300310 

 

23 March 2010 - View from the Desk - Where Does Australia Stand? 

Australia is extraordinarily well positioned in a world economy that is extremely fragile. But can we withstand the effects of declining or negative growth in Europe, US and Japan?

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pdf view_from_desk_230310

16 March 2010 - View from the Desk - Government Debt Still the Main Issue

Government debt continues to be the major issue that threatens a recovery in equity markets. The escalation of trade tensions between the US and China is a most unwelcome development and one that investors must watch closely. 

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pdf view_from_desk_160310

10 March 2010 - View from the Desk - a Greek tragedy averted for now

It is a year since markets bottomed in March 2009 following the unprecedented and co-ordinated government support packages sanctioned by the G20. Since 12 mArch 2009, the US S&P 5000 has risen by about 72% and financial shares by over 140%. In Australia, the market has lifted by about 55%. Over this same period, the $A has also risen by 30% and therefore our gains are even more impressive in $US terms.

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pdf view_from_desk_090310

7 March 2010 - The Profit Reporting Season  

In terms of net positive surprises, the reporting season that just passed in Australia was the strongest since August 2007. This was a global phenomenon.

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pdf the_profit_reporting_season_and_shares_a_year_after_the_low_-_oi_03_2010

17 February 2010 - The Australian Economy - Heading into a Better Place

The Australian economy is set to grow by around 4% through this yaer, reflecting the lagged impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus, high levels of business and consumer confidence, the rebound in ewalth, and higher export prices. This is likely to push unemployment back below 5% over the year ahead.

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pdf the_australian_economy_-_heading_into_a_better_place_-_oi_feb_2010

5 February 2010 - The Blowout in Public Debt

A Global blowout in public debt has been a key outcome from the global financial crisis (GFC). Aging populations are also playing a role.

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pdf the_blowout_in_public_debt_-_how_big_an_issue_-_oi__5_feb_2010

 

25 September 2009 - Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar has recovered sharply from its lows last year reflecting a combination of $US weakness, stronger commodity prices and the likelihood Australia will be the first major country to start raising interest rates.

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pdf australian_dollar

 

24 September 2009 - Rules for Successful Investing

Economic and investment forecasts are often seen as central to investing, but while they can be useful they should be treated with caution and are no substitute for having a disciplined approach to investing.

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pdf rules_for_successful_investing 

23 July 2009  - Super funds and two years in a row of negative returns

As a result of the slump in investment markets last year, most superannuation funds have had another financial year of negative returns, making it two in a row.

Fortunately, there are signs of improvement. In the June quarter just passed, most balanced growth superannuation funds had their first positive quarterly return since the September quarter 2007. Share and credit markets led the way down and they are now leading on the way up and leading economic indicators are pointing to a recovery ahead.

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pdf super_returns

10 July 2009 - Australia - recession or recovery?

While the global economy is going through its worst recession in over 70 years, the Australian economy has held up remarkably well, so far at least.  

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pdf aust_recession_or_recovery

6 July 2009 - Worry List for Investors

Just how worrying is the "Worry List" for investors?
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pdf worry_list_07_2009

29 May 2009 - Addwealth Newsletter

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported in April 2009 that there would be a significant fall in world growth, especially in the developed world. These developed economies are expected to have an economic growth reduction of 3.4%. 

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pdf addwealth_newsletter_autumn_09 

14 May 2009 - Budget Update

Was this the budget that we had to have? The Australian Federal Budget for 2009/10 was full of handouts and very little pain.

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pdf budget_and_may_update

14 May 2009 - Summary of Changes from May Budget

On 12 May 2009 Treasurer Wayne Swan delivered his second Federal Budget. There are a number of announcements of which financial planners and their clients need to be aware.

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pdf May Budget Synopsis 

7 May 2009 - China's Recovery

After slowing sharply late last year – highlighted by a slump in GDP growth from a peak of near 13% in 2007 to just 6.1%  over the year to the March quarter – a range of indicators are pointing to a recovery in China.

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pdf China's Recovery 

5 May 2009 -  Swine Flu - Pandemic or just another flu pandemonium?

As if investors didn't have enough to worry about, concerns about another flu pandemic - swine flu in this case - are now causing concerns globally following deaths in Mexico and spreading to various parts of the world.

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pdf Swine Flu - pandemic or just another pandemonium?

29 January 2009 - Economic Update

Asian shares have been hard hit by the global financial crisis and subsequent global recession. However, at a time when the medium term outlook for US, European and Japanese shares is fraught with uncertainty there are good reasons to believe Asian shares (ex Japan) will perform well over the next 5 to 10 years.

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 pdf asia_in_a_world_of_deleveraging

21 January 2009 - Investment Update

Having made the decision to go to cash was difficult enough, but with markets having fallen a further 20 to 30 per cent we are now constantly questioning when to invest. 

Share markets will move upwards well in advance of an economic turnaround so one must not sit in cash on the sidelines forever.  Each day we must weigh up the pros and cons of going back into the market.

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pdf 21_january_2009_investment_update

21 January 2009 - The global economy, bad now but some positive signs

The key to when shares and other growth oriented financial assets get back on to a sustainable rising trend will be the depth and duration of the global recession and a big driver of this will be the global policy response.  

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false Global financial crisis - bad now but some positive signs

15 December 2008 - Lessons learned from the global financial crisis


The past 60 years has not seen anything like the freezing up of lending between global banks, the disruption to credit flows or the need for so many financial institutions in the US and Europe to be rescued as we have seen in 2008. The current crisis is not the worst in Asia (1997/98 was) or Australia (the early 1990s was). But for the world as a whole it is the worst financial crisis in the post war period. So how did it come to this? What will it mean going forward? What are the lessons for investors?

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pdf Market Meltdown

3 October 2008 - The continuing roller-coaster ride in financial markets

The credit crunch and global share markets have taken another turn for the worst this week reflecting a combination of continuing bank failures/rescues in the US and Europe and the US House of Representatives initial rejection of the US Government’s debt relief package.

Uncertainty regarding the investment outlook is continuing to drive massive daily swings in share markets. Over the last twenty trading days the Australian share market has seen 17 days where the market has moved by 1% or more, with US, European and Japanese shares seeing an average of 14 days. This is way above historical norms.

The key message for investors is not to panic.

The ride for shares is likely to remain rough in the short term. But they are good value on a one year view. Selling now after 30% or so falls in share markets will only turn a paper loss into a real loss.

For further information read the article attached; call your Addwealth Adviser on 08 9284 3144 or email us at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

pdf Financial Turmoil - US Rescue Article  

 

 

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